@Article{AndradeJúniorValSotRamHal:2019:ExFuSc,
               author = "Andrade J{\'u}nior, Milton Aur{\'e}lio Uba de and Valin, Hugo 
                         and Soterroni, Aline Cristina and Ramos, Fernando Manoel and 
                         Halog, Anthony",
          affiliation = "{The University of Queensland} and {International Institute for 
                         Applied Systems Analysis} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {The University of Queensland}",
                title = "Exploring future scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil and their 
                         land-use implications",
              journal = "Energy Policy",
                 year = "2019",
               volume = "134",
               number = "UNSP 1109598",
                month = "Nov.",
             keywords = "Policy drivers, Biofuels, Ethanol demand, Land-use change, 
                         Sugarcane, Agroecological zoning.",
             abstract = "Ethanol biofuel demand in Brazil is highly dependent on 
                         macroeconomic and policy drivers, making it difficult to 
                         anticipate future production and associated environmental 
                         implications. Here we develop scenarios of ethanol demand in 
                         Brazil towards 2030, based on a thorough examination of key 
                         influencing drivers, i.e. GDP and population growth, fleet 
                         composition, blending policies, fuel prices and energy efficiency. 
                         We then estimate their land-use implications using a detailed 
                         partial equilibrium model, GLOBIOM-Brazil. We find that ethanol 
                         demand is highly sensitive to the drivers considered and could 
                         increase between 37.4 and 70.7 billion litres in 2030 depending on 
                         the scenario. Such increase is 13% and 114% above the 2018 
                         consumption level. This represents an expansion in sugarcane area 
                         between 1.2 and 5 million hectares (14% - 58% above the land-use 
                         in 2018). Compared to the low demand scenario, a high demand for 
                         ethanol in 2030 would drive sugarcane expansion mostly into 
                         pastureland (72%) and natural vegetation mosaics (19%). Our 
                         results suggest that future ethanol demand in Brazil should not 
                         substantially affect food production nor native forest. This 
                         outcome will however depend on the compliance with the sugarcane 
                         agro-ecological zoning (AEZ) by the ethanol sector in Brazil, a 
                         key assumption of our projections.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110958",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110958",
                 issn = "0301-4215",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "andrade_exploring.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}